2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (2023)

The nominees for Best Picture at the 95th Academy Awards have been revealed, and it is certainly a race for the ages. The nominees seem to stretch a wide array of genres and styles, reflecting the diverse art form of the movies ranging from massive blockbusters to smaller character studies, biopics, and major festival winners. The lineup for Best Picture is one of the strongest of any ceremonies, but only one can win Best Picture.

With that in mind, which films have the best chance of winning? There are literal betting odds in Vegas and elsewhere, and if you're in a gambling mood or just want to bet against yourself, we've determined the odds. Factoring in previous Oscar winners, voting trends, the number of nominations, and knowing that the Best Picture voting is determined by rank choice ballot which could shift the tide in a film's favor, take a look at the ten films nominated for Best Picture at the 2023 Academy Awards. See which films have the best shot of walking away with the top prize of the night, ranked from least to most likely (along with their betting odds calculated by Covers).


10 Women Talking (+6,500)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (1)

Women Talking garnered a lot of critical acclaim when it premiered at the Telluride Film Festival, and many expected it to be a bigger player at the Academy Awards. Sadly the movie only received two nominations, with the only other nomination besides Best Picture being Best Adapted Screenplay. With an Oscar snub for Sarah Polley for Best Director, and the movie being the Best Picture nominee with the least nominations, Women Talking has the biggest uphill battle to win Best Picture.

9 Triangle of Sadness (+10,000)

Triangle of Sadness is the biggest surprise of the Best Picture nominees, even though it shouldn't be, given the film received a standing ovation at the Cannes Film Festival and won the Palme d'Or. The movie received three Academy Award nominations including Best Director and Best Original Screenplay.

Yet with no acting nominations, and the surprising snub of Dolly de Leon who appeared as a supporting actress front-runner, the movie may have a hard time securing the Best Picture win. The film is also a satirical dark comedy with some genuinely gross scenes, and that can be a polarizing film for some voters.

8 Avatar: The Way of Water (+8,000)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (3)

Avatar: The Way of Water is the biggest movie of 2022 at the worldwide box office, having grossed $2 billion as of this writing. Just like the first Avatar, Avatar: The Way of Water was seen as both a big blockbuster and an Oscar contender, and the sequel certainly delivered, earning four nominations.

Yet the movie did not land a Best Director for James Cameron and earned five nominations less than its predecessor, which may indicate that Oscar voters liked Avatar: The Way of Water, but not as much as the previous film. There is also the fact that the movie is less stand-alone than the previous film, with a major sequel set-up, and Oscar voters may not want to choose what they see as half of a story and would rather wait to see how Avatar 3 turns out.

7 All Quiet on the Western Front (+3,500)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (4)

All Quiet on the Western Front made a big splash at the 95th Academy Award nominations, earning nine nominations. The German adaptation of the popular book of the same name, the film has garnered a great deal of critical praise as a grim portrait of war's reality, and its status as an adaptation of a literary classic gives it a good chance.

Related: Best Cinematography in 2022 Movies, Ranked

Yet the film is nominated for Best International Film as well, and while Parasite was able to secure both awards, there is a chance Oscar voters may decide if they vote for it in the Best International Film category they may rank it lower in Best Picture. It could still go the distance, but its chances are slightly lowered.

6 Elvis (+10,000)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (5)

Elvis certainly is not a better movie than Woman Talking, Avatar: The Way of Water, All Quiet on the Western Front, or Triangle of Sadness. Yet what Elvis certainly has going for it is the cross-generational appeal to many members of the Academy voters. It is a big, sprawling musical biopic about one of the most popular musicians of all time, a box office hit that seems to have been enjoyed by various age groups at the Academy Award. With eight nominations and a strong showing for star Austin Butler, Elvis has risen up as a potential Best Picture winner.

5 Tár (+3,500)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (6)

Tár has a strong chance of winning Best Picture, just off the strength of star Cate Blanchett and director Todd Field, both of whom scored nominations for Best Actress and Best Director respectively. The story is very much a movie that will connect with awards voters, a deep intimate character study about an artist that also grapples with their own demons. If Tár has anything going against it though, it might be a little more niche for some voters.

4 The Banshees of Inisherin (+225)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (7)

The Banshees of Inisherin tied with All Quiet on the Western Front with the second most nominations of any movie at the Academy Awards, with nine nominations including Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and a whopping four acting nominations. This makes it a clear favorite among Academy voters, but the question is — is it anybody's top favorite?

Related: Biggest Oscar Nomination Snubs of 2023

While the movie has a great deal of critical praise and of the nominated films the one with the best Rotten Tomatoes score, the film's awards buzz has slowed down a bit. It scored plenty of nominations but is also in some competitive categories where it might have a lot of nominations but not enough to win the top spot. However, it could also be a surprise winner, as it being both nobody's top pick but also nobody's bottom pick could help it in the ranked-choice ballot.

3 Top Gun: Maverick (+1,000)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (8)

Top Gun: Maverick was the biggest surprise of 2022, the rare blockbuster film that was both a massive hit with critics and audiences and currently stands as the highest-grossing movie of 2022 at the domestic box office. Top Gun: Maverick connected with audiences across a wide age range which makes it a possible favorite among many voters at the Academy Awards both young and old.

This can go one of two ways, either being the Lord of the Rings: Return of the King where the big blockbuster also goes on to win Best Picture, or Mad Max: Fury Road where the critically acclaimed action film does not win Best Picture but has the honor of being nominated.

2 The Fabelmans (+1,100)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (9)

The Fabelmans has been a favorite among critics and members of the Academy since it first premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival in September 2022. A semi-autobiographical film about legendary filmmaker Steven Spielberg makes it an easy favorite among Oscar voters. Being both a movie about making movies and a small personal family drama makes it fit many of the boxes that people expect and want from the Best Picture winner. The Fabelmans also won the Best Drama Motion Picture award at the Golden Globes.

1 Everything Everywhere All at Once (-165)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (10)

Talk about the little film that could. When Everything Everywhere All At Once opened in theaters back in March 2022, the film received overwhelming critical praise and went on to become the highest-grossing movie for A24, but even then people thought the movie might be too weird for Oscar voters to go all the way. Now Everything Everywhere All At Once scored 11 nominations, more than any other film nominated this year, and is the odds on favorite to win Best Picture.

It has secured nominations in the most coveted categories including Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actress, and it is basically a lock for Best Supporting Actor for Ke Huy Quan. Now EverythingEverywhere All At Once is the front-runner for Best Picture, and it honestly seems like a movie that has connected with various members of the Academy, and stands a good shot of winning the coveted award.

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